Heritage Financial North
  • Home
  • About us
  • Services
  • Blog
  • Contact
  • Free Review
  • Client Portal

Blog

What Does the 2020 Election Mean for Your Portfolio?

3/26/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
​The 2020 election cycle is in full swing. It’s primary season, which means the general election is right around the corner. Before you know it, the two major parties will have their conventions and we’ll be heading to the ballot box.
 
Of course, you may already have election fatigue. From the local level all the way up to national races, candidates are already flooding television with political ads.
 
As is the case in most presidential elections, candidates are also talking about the economy. They may make claims about what will happen in the economy if they’re elected or that the markets might decline if their opponent is elected.
 
That kind of rhetoric is common during elections, but is it accurate? Will the outcome of the election impact your portfolio? Should you worry about the election? Or perhaps even change your allocation to protect yourself. Below are a few tips to keep in mind through the rest of the election year:

Keep history in perspective. 

Often when there is one issue or story dominating the news, like the presidential election, it’s easy to focus solely on that story. It’s in the news and on social media so much that it feels like it’s the most important issue in the world.
 
However, the truth is that this country and the stock market have been through many presidential elections. In fact, in most of those years, the markets performed positively. In fact, since 1928, there have been 23 presidential elections. In 19 of those years, the S&P 500 had a positive return.1
 
In fact, in the four instances when the markets did have negative returns, there were also economic events happening that may have driven the performance. In 1932, the country was in the midst of the Great Depression. In 1940, the country was entering World War II.
 
The markets declined in 2000, which was the year George W. Bush ran against Al Gore. However, the bursting tech bubble in Silicon Valley may have had more influence on the markets than the election. Finally, in 2008, the S&P 500 also declined, but that was the year of the financial crisis.
 
The takeaway is that market declines can happen in any year. The fact that it’s an election year may cause news stories and rhetoric, but the market is likely driven by investor concerns and economic conditions.

Focus on the long-term. 

Your investment strategy was likely designed for the long-term. Perhaps you’re saving for retirement or some other goal that is years or possibly even decades in the future. Over that period, you’ll likely see times of market volatility.
 
Whether it’s an election year or not, it’s always helpful to focus on the long-term during challenging periods. Market downturns happen, but they are always temporary.

There are two common types of downturns: corrections and bear markets. Corrections are losses of 10% or more. Bear markets are losses of 20% or more. As you can see in the chart below, the average correction loses around 13% and the average bear market sees a loss of around 30%.2

However, the duration of each is also important. A correction, on average, lasts around four months. After that period, there is an average four-month recovery period to recoup the losses. Bear markets last longer. They have an average duration of 13 months with a 22-month recovery period.2
Picture
​Market downturns are never pleasant, but they are temporary. Keep an eye on the long-term and stick to your strategy.

Don’t make gut decisions. 

It can be easy to make a gut, impulse decision when you hear and see stressful news on a regular basis. It might be tempting to sell your investments and move to asset classes that have less risk and volatility.
 
However, a move to perceived safety could do more harm than good. The chart below shows how the average equity investor has fared compared the S&P 500 over different periods of time. As you can see, the index always wins, sometimes by a wide margin. 3

Picture
Why does this happen? Primarily because the index stays invested at all times, while the average investor is constantly moving in and out of the market based on gut decisions or attempts to avoid loss. While investors may miss some declines with this strategy, they also miss out on gains. Staying invested usually leads to better long-term performance.
 
At the writing of this article the impact of the Coronavirus was not included, however the long-term principals of investing still holds true. With the recent markets sell off and volatility increasingly high, it is a good time to remind you that we are available if you’d like to ask any questions or take a look at your portfolio.
 
 
Ready to protect your portfolio this election year? Let’s talk about it. Contact us at Heritage Financial North. We can help you analyze your needs and develop a strategy. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526
2https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/whats-a-bear-market-and-how-long-do-they-usually-last-.html]
​3https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-still-terrible-at-investing-annual-study-once-again-shows-2017-10-19
 
Advisory Services Offered Through Change Path LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Heritage Financial North and Change Path LLC are not affiliated. Licensed Insurance Professional. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. No information on this website is intended to provide and should not be relied upon for or construed as accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. Neither Change Path, LLC not its representatives give tax or legal advice.
 
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
​
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018

    Categories

    All
    2020
    Benefits
    COVId
    Economic Update
    Election
    Employer Plan
    Fed Chairman
    File For Social Security
    Financial Planning
    Fourth Quarter
    FRA
    Insruance
    Insurance
    Long-term Care Insurance
    Managing Healthcare Expenses
    Portfolio
    Retirement
    Retirement Community
    Retirement Income Planning
    Retirement Planning
    Risk
    Risk Tolerance
    Social Security
    Stock Market
    Tax Planning
    Tax Tips 2019
    Volatility

    RSS Feed

Call Us Toll Free 888 579 0429
​
1700 S El Camino Real, Suite 375, San Mateo CA 94402

Heritage Financial North BBB Business Review
Picture
© 2022 Heritage Financial North | Advisory Services Offered Through CreativeOne Wealth, LLC  a Registered Investment Advisor.
​ Heritage Financial North, Heritage Financial North Insurance Services  and CreativeOne Wealth, LLC are not affiliated. |  CA Insurance License # 0E02803
  • Home
  • About us
  • Services
  • Blog
  • Contact
  • Free Review
  • Client Portal